Photo credit: Lux Interaction

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Introduction

“I’m not sure when our industry became so obsessed with what’s shiny over what’s profound. I’m not sure when we became so keen to use buzzwords that we didn’t check what they mean — or that they even have any meaning at all.”

Photo Credit: Hermes Rivera

The pace of change is not accelerating

“Tomorrow will not be like today. Today you will experience the slowest rate of technological change in your lifetime. Tomorrow, it will be faster and the pace of change will continue to increase.”

“We’re entering an age of acceleration. The models underlying society at every level, which are largely based on a linear model of change, are going to have to be redefined. Because of the explosive power of exponential growth, the 21st century will be equivalent to 20,000 years of progress at today’s rate of progress.”

“The world is moving so fast these days that the man who says it can’t be done is generally interrupted by someone doing it.”

“They said that change was accelerating in 1900. They said it in 1920. In 1940, in 1960, in 1980 and in 2000. So the presumption is that the people who said it before were wrong, but we’re right now.”

“If you go back and read what people wrote in the 19th century, they thought change was happening at an incredible rate we had never seen before.”

“In the business community, especially in and around Silicon Valley, there is a widespread belief that we live in an age of mind-boggling economic upheaval and change. But economists have been churning out research for several years now that seems to show a decades-long slowdown in almost every indicator of business dynamism.”

Photo credit: Diana Macesanu.

Technological adoption is not accelerating

“The chart botches the basic rule of apples-to-apples comparison. The gauge for telephones, radio and TV appears to be the number of U.S. households with that technology, (…) while the Internet, Facebook and Angry Birds numbers include users of all types.”

“The time it takes for a new technology to be adopted by 50 percent of US households has long been used by economic historians for cross-technology comparisons. (…) Experts generally agree that both radios (8 years) and black-and-white televisions (9) reached the 50 percent threshold much faster than personal computers (17) or mobile phones (15).”

Photo credit: Niklas Hamann.

Creative destruction is not accelerating

“A total of 414,000 businesses were formed in 2015 (…). It was a slight increase from the previous year, but well below the 558,000 companies given birth in 2006, the year before the recession set in.”

“Of 13 industrial sectors in America, ten were more concentrated in 2007 than they had been in 1997. Since then there has been a huge round of mergers in health care, consumer goods, airlines, cable-TV, telecoms and technology hardware. Most of these deals have created bigger firms with higher market shares and more pricing power.”

Photo credit: Annie Theby.

Magpie marketing

“Today’s world of never-ending technological breakthroughs creates the illusion that jumping from bandwagon to bandwagon is moving us forward, when we are really going around in circles.”

“When you lose your shit talking nonsense about all the massive, gigantic, tectonic changes, you miss the possibility of making good solid strategic decisions for the year ahead. Things are not going to change that much next year so how can I, a good marketer, benefit from that knowledge and the things I have learned this year?”

“Marketers are interested in career progression as well as brand success. If their colleagues are paying disproportionate attention to the latest social medium then it’s dangerous not to do so. An unwillingness to follow the herd may be interpreted as being old-fashioned or out of touch.”

Photo credit: Yoann Boyer.

Conclusion

“The underlying principles of strategy are enduring, regardless of technology or the pace of change.”

“Many people are inclined to think that the new world in this millennium might have changed planning. Media has changed and we live in digital world now. But I think that the basic principles of planning haven’t changed.”

“Human nature hasn’t changed for a million years. It won’t even change in the next million years. Only the superficial things have changed. It is fashionable to talk about the changing man. A communicator must be concerned with the unchanging man with his obsessive drive to survive, to be admired, to succeed, to love, to take care of his own.”

Want more?

Strategy Director at Epoch.

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